Week 11 brings new intrigue to our analysis of touches as targets, as beyond the typical breakdown of which players received valuable first, second and tertiary looks in their offenses, we start to see team’s with an eye toward 2015 working new players in. The data tells us that Tampa Bay has confirmed their interest in seeing what Charles Sims can do, and Oakland might be thinking about how they can use Latavius Murray, for example. It also tells us that certain teams are distributing the ball evenly while others are concentrating targets… come Weeks 14-16 and your fantasy football playoffs, you’ll want to be on the side of the volume. With that in mind, lets review the touches and targets, week 11.
Remember: we’re using ProFootballFocus’ ‘thrown at’ data which takes a more reasonable assessment of balls thrown in a receiver’s direction, so, you may notice some slight discrepancy from box scores.
Touches and Targets Week 11: New York Giants
Rashad Jennings was bottled up in his return, but, that return relegated Andre Williams to strict backup duty (Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America).
If this was New York’s version of easing Rashad Jennings back, as they had indicated that they may do heading into Week 11, then he should be in store for a massive workload in Week 12. In his return from injury, Jennings played 84% of the snaps for New York, relegating Andre Williams to nine snaps and three touches. Jennings had 24 of his own, though he clearly has some rust to shake off (and was the victim of a rough matchup) posting 67 total yards. At least Williams owners have an answer at this stage… it’s just that that answer is he’ll be a low-ceiling flex the rest of the way with Jennings maintaining significant workload.
Rueben Randle out-targeted Odell Beckham Jr. and actually finished with a solid 7-112 receiving line. That said, while the rookie made another degree of difficulty catch on the way to a 12/6/93 line of his own, Randle failed to catch 50% of his 15 targets and was the intended recipient on three of Eli Manning’s five interceptions. That the QB threw five picks is on him, but the low catch rate/interceptions were a hallmark of Randle’s 2013 season as well. For now, the team is content to put the ball his way which makes him a useful fantasy play, but it isn’t pretty sometimes. Preston Parker, thanks to a few missed snaps from Randle and a lot of three WR sets played 55 of 70 snaps but was targeted just twice after a solid outing in Seattle, so you can let go of that narrative. TE Larry Donnell found the endzone on five targets (54 yards, three receptions) and coincidentally or not has seen greater production with Jennings in the lineup.
Touches and Targets Week 11: St. Louis Rams
Each week when discussing starts/sits I make a big fuss out of how running backs generally see very few opportunities against Denver, given that the Broncos put team’s in a hole early more often than not. So, naturally, the back who a few weeks ago was muddled in a confusing Cerberus situation wound up with 30 touches. Tre Mason carried the ball 29 times for 113 yards and was a driving force in the Rams victory. Benny Cunningham had two carries (adding four receptions on four targets), Zac Stacy sat. If you needed further affirmation that this was Mason’s show, you’ve got it.
Kenny Britt had seven targets and a whale of a game (four catches, 128 yards, TD) in Shaun Hill’s return to the lineup. That’s really all you need to know, as the rest of the work was fairly evenly distributed: four unproductive targets for Tavon Austin, to go with two carries… five looks for Jared Cook… three for Stedman Bailey. Bailey is somewhere way in the back of my mind to monitor, but otherwise this is a situation to avoid given how the ball is spread out. Britt has two scores in three weeks, and could be worthy of a deep league play in the right matchup. Oakland and Washington in Weeks 14 and 15 are two such games.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Seattle Seahawks
Marshawn Lynch had exactly 12 carries before the break, and 12 carries after half time while Robert Turbin played just 10 snaps (to three for Christine Michael) shedding light on the fact that Lynch could, indeed, walk and that the team is content to feed the ball to their best player despite his mercurial attitude. As it should be, fantasy owners, as it should be. Lynch ran well again, though he was stuffed on a couple of short yardage opportunities that wound up factoring into the outcome significantly.
The pecking order in Seattle’s passing game remains clear enough: Doug Baldwin (eight targets) Jermaine Kearse (seven) and Paul Richardson (four) have all appeared, more or less, in that order since Percy Harvin’s departure. That Luke Willson led the team in yards for most of the game despite his injury limiting him to just 18 snaps speaks volume about their utility though, as does Russell Wilson adding another 71 yards on the ground.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Atlanta Falcons
For the third straight game, Steven Jackson had 18 or more touches, finishing with 17 carries and two receptions. He didn’t run particularly well (17-41) and he is still playing in under 50% of the snaps (37/75) as the team attempts to keep him fresh, but, they’re on a mini-warm streak at the moment which coincides with Jackson’s increased use so you should expect him to continue to see work in the 15-20 touch range. Behind him, Devonta Freeman had a nice day running the ball with six carries and has become the second back in the rotation (at 22-13, Devonta Freeman did play more snaps, mind you). Antone Smith has fizzled, as projected, and played just six snaps this week netting one touch.
Coming off a solid receiving game in Week 10, Julio Jones drew double digit targets from Matt Ryan again and the pair connected six times. A six catch, 59 yard day is nothing to scoff at but it remains clear that Ryan is having more success with Roddy White as the team focuses on getting the ball out quickly rather than working to Jones on deep routes. White was targeted 12 times and made eight receptions for 75 yards, scoring a TD. White has scored in three of his last four games, and while this is the first time in that span that he has seen more targets than Jones, it isn’t the first time he has been more productive. Both remain start-worthy WR1/2s depending on the matchup.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Carolina Panthers
Different week, same story for the Panthers RBs. In a matchup that should have been easy to exploit, DeAngelo Williams drew the start but played on fewer snaps than teammate Jonathan Stewart. Williams had 10 carries for 41 yards, while Stewart chipped in 7-24 and finished just one touch behind him with a 3/3/15 receiving line. Both backs were ‘alright’ in terms of real world contributions for their team but they won’t do anything for your fake team unless they are in the endzone which is a challenging task to predict on a limited workload.
Philly Brown owns a number of big plays this season, but don’t read anything into his 47 yard TD against the Falcons. He remains the fifth option in a limited receiving corps. Kelvin Benjamin remains the first. Carolina actually mounted a furious comeback in the second half, only to fall just short on a blocked (and admittedly low percentage) field goal as time expired. To get them there, Benjamin made three catches on the team’s final drive including a wise move to hand the ball off to teammate Greg Olsen who took it out of bounds with one second left. All told, Benjamin finished with 12 targets and eight receptions for 99 yards, adding his eighth touchdown. Carolina has been playing a particularly awful brand of football in recent weeks, and yet Benjamin has been incredibly consistent. Outside of a two catch, 12 yard performance against New Orleans (in which he drew 10 targets and simply couldn’t convert) Benjamin has had eight fantasy points or more in every game since Week 2. Is he a perfect/polished receiver? Absolutely not. But he leads Carolina’s passing attack in targets consistently and the commensurate production counts more for fantasy owners than does Carolina’s win/loss record. Greg Olsen enjoyed 11 targets, catching five balls this week. Elsewhere, the passes are too evently distributed (four targets for Jerricho Cotchery, none for Brenton Bersin and Jason Avant this week) for anyone to remain relevant.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Minnesota Vikings
Jerick McKinnon’s light workload has to be taken with a grain of salt. Sure, he had just 12 touches (eight carries, four receptions on six targets) but considering that the Vikings managed to run just 47 offensive plays he was the intended recipient on 30% of the team’s total offense for the day… with Adrian Peterson officially (pending appeal) out for the year, he’ll continue to be a big part of the team’s plans – particularly as the weather gets colder. Matt Asiata had just four touches behind him, including one fewer pass target.
Again, the Vikings couldn’t really get anything going against a Bears team that had allowed 50 points in back to back outings… so, they’re not very good… but, that they ran just 47 plays keeps everyone’s numbers down. No receiver in the regular rotation was targeted more than twice (Patterson two, Jennings two, Wright one before checking out with injury). Wright’s injury opened up an opportunity for Charles Johnson to see 25 snaps and draw seven targets (catching six for 87 yards) which speaks more to me about the team’s interest in avoiding Patterson than it does about any future value for Johnson.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Chicago Bears
Ka’Deem Carey played on four snaps for Chicago, while Matt Forte missed just two of 78 plays and racked up 175 total yards on 32 touches. Forte has failed to top 100 total yards just three times this season, and is as consistent as they come… but you knew that anyway.
In the passing game, Chicago danced with the ones that brought them because Marc Trestman looks like the type that couldn’t get a new date if his life depended on it is a stand-up guy like that. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery responded with 9/9/90/2 and 16/11/135/1 lines respectively. There is plenty of work for both receivers, and hopefully a solid game from each quiets the panic that really has more to do with Chicago’s defense than their offense. Behind them, the Bears went three wide fairly regularly and that led to Marquess Wilson playing on 74% of the snaps in his first game action of the year. He was targeted just four times and made two receptions for 11 yards, but the development is noteworthy in the wake of Santonio Holmes’ dismissal and with the reality that the preseason hype-star would step into a big role if either of the top two wideouts got hurt down the stretch.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Philadelphia Eagles
Well, at least LeSean McCoy turned things around in the run game. He’s had three solid-enough outings in his last four games and topped 100 total yards this week. The production certainly isn’t what you were looking for when you selected McCoy, but with 23 carries for 88 yards and a reception this week, you can’t knock the workload. Chris Polk played just four snaps, while Darren Sproles added four touches (two catches on five pass targets).
I pegged one Mark Sanchez bromance entirely wrong (Brent Celek saw two targets after a breakout Week 10, while Zach Ertz had six passes thrown his direction) but it seems that the Sanchez-Matthews connection is here to stay. Matthews’ five looks in the first half (before the game became a laugher) were three more than any other WR and he finished with an 8/5/107/TD line. Jeremy Maclin had a fine day as well, finishing at 11/9/93/TD but nine of those targets came in catch up mode. They all count statistically, but Matthews’ early use seems to be an indication of his value in his QB’s eyes. Maclin remains a WR1, but Matthews must be on your radar as a weekly start as well.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Green Bay Packers
I’ve noted this space over the last few weeks that Eddie Lacy had been taking on a larger chunk of the team’s RB workload, and his relatively low touch count in Week 11 shouldn’t change anyone’s viewpoint on that. Lacy had 10 carries (for 69 yards) and added three receptions on four targets (for 45) scoring as both a rusher and a receiver. The game got out of hand quickly, as you well know, so he didn’t see a lot of action in the second half. Nine of his 14 touches came in the opening 30 minutes, suggesting that there will be lots of work for Lacy in more competitive games… if the Packers find themselves in any, that is. James Starks’ 8-9, 2/2/17 line behind him does little to change that perspective.
Jordy Nelson got open down the sideline again this week, and his QB found him for a long strike yet again. Both Nelson and Cobb topped 100 yards receiving, though Jordy and Aaron Rodgers uncharacteristically were off on a number of passes, as he finished his day with more misses than receptions (9/4/109). Cobb meanwhile was used heavily and caught 10 of 13 balls. As for the rest, there were a few looks leftover for Davante Adams (two, including one in the endzone on 63.2% of the team’s snaps) and Jarrett Boykin (one, on 19.1%) and a mixture of TEs.
Touches and Targets Week 11: New Orleans Saints
In a matchup against the 5th worst rushing defense in the league (by yards), Mark Ingram mustered just 67 yards on 23 carries despite a 4.4 YPC average allowed by Cincy this year overall. That said, his 23 totes and an additional seven receptions continue to make Ingram highly valuable in fantasy circles. Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson did not appear to be particularly close to playing this week, and his workload (30 touches in three straight games) should be safe until they are back on the field. Travaris Cadet had one carry and four receptions.
With news that Brandin Cooks should miss most if not all of the remaining regular season schedule, things shake up in the passing game in New Orleans. He was targeted six times this week, and has averaged 6.5 per game on the year. Those will be distributed somewhere… likely among the existing cast that includes Marques Colston (eight targets, four receptions) and Kenny Stills (four targets, four receptions and a TD). Robert Meachem may find his way back to action, but that is more a trivia footnote than anything else. Stills, who is the best match to Cooks’ speed game, may see more deep looks the rest of the way.
Touches and Targets Week 11: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers left Carlos Hyde on the shelf last week after Frank Gore complained about his workload, but managed to find nine carries for the rookie this week on 33% of the team’s snaps. Gore’s workload remained healthy, with 19 carries and 95 yards on the ground and a pair of receptions for 19. He didn’t really capitalize on the matchup against New York. Still, Gore has now scored 10+ points in two of the team’s three games since the bye after struggling heading into it.
Michael Crabtree saved his fantasy day again with a long catch, this time for a touchdown. All told, he was targeted eight times (hanging right around his average of 7.2) and made three receptions. He received two more looks than teammate Anquan Boldin after the elder wideout drew 14 a week ago. Boldin (five catches) has been the steadier option for Colin Kaepernick and fantasy owners, but, Crabtree remains the bigger threat to score. At TE, I’ve mentioned in this space before that Vernon Davis’ lack of use came from the team spreading the ball around in the passing game, but with just 14 targets between Crabtree and Boldin and only one apiece for secondary options Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd, there still wasn’t much work for Davis (four balls thrown his direction, on which he made one catch). His meagre production was a virtual match of last week’s game, and Davis simply isn’t startable in fantasy leagues right now. Of course, if you own him, you knew that already.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In what is pretty much a reprint of last week in this space, I’ll note that Charles Sims got a fair bit of work (13 carries, four targets, three receptions), it wasn’t terrible efficient (44 total yards) and it is likely to grow. The team showed a clear preference for seeing how Sims is developing, giving him 33 of 52 offensive snaps with Bobby Rainey (five carries, four yards) the other 19. That split seems fair, and while Doug Martin may factor into the mix Sims should be looking at 13-16 touches the rest of the way. If you can find a use for that, you can bank on it.
Words won’t be able to do Mike Evans’ game justice, so… 9/7/209/2… 458 yards and five scores in three weeks… watch the video. Elsewhere, Vincent Jackson had a quiet day, drawing just four targets. He had 13 in Josh McCown’s first game back, though, and his low usage seems more about the flow of the gam than anything else. The two win Bucs will find themselves hucking it around in the second half so count on more work for Jackson (and Austin Seferian-Jenkins who had one target, if you’re tracking that, too).
Touches and Targets Week 11: Washington
Alfred Moris tallied 132 yards on 22 touches (20 carries) and has now topped the 20 mark in two straight games, with weeks of 19 and 18 touches before that. His workload has quietly creeped up over the second half of the season and the return on investment has been solid, if not spectacular for his owners. Roy Helu found the endzone and was tied for the team lead in targets this week, with six.
DeSean Jackson matched those six looks, and made four receptions but posted just 35 yards on a day where Robert Griffin III really struggled. There were no other fantasy contributors as Jordan Reed (3/2/22) left early with a hamstring pull, Andre Roberts was targeted just twice and Pierre Garcon continued his miserable season. I hate typing that last statement as I still really don’t feel like it is on the receiver, but in any event with just 62 targets this year (46 in all non-Eagles games) there simply isn’t enough work to be productive. You can’t start Garcon in your fantasy playoffs. At this point, you don’t need to own him either. If his own team won’t use him, why would your fake one?
Touches and Targets Week 11: Detroit Lions
Joique Bell ran hard again for the Lions, with 14 carries (and three receptions) for 85 yards… 79 of which came after first contact. Bell did a great job of fighting for every yard against the Cardinals. Behind him, Theo Riddick picked up 18 snaps in Reggie Bush’s absence and while he only had two carries, he was engaged in the pass game. Matthew Stafford looked his way six times, the second highest total on the team, but Riddick hauled in just three balls for 24 yards. There isn’t a lot to like this week from him in fantasy, but, you can count on PPR value and a few opportunities every time Reggie misses a game.
Patrick Peterson did as he said he would this week, shutting down Calvin Johnson with physical play. 10 of Johnson’s 12 targets came against Peterson, who came up with an interception on a ball thrown Megatron’s way. Johnson was held to just five receptions and 59 yards, though it wasn’t for lack of trying (he was targeted on 21.4% of Detroit’s offensive snaps). That left little work for Golden Tate, who saw a shocking two targets in a game where Stafford threw 11 balls in the direction of his RBs. That wasn’t a particularly productive approach, though, and I would expect Tate to be back in the mix this week. The team was three wide often, with Jeremy Ross seeing 44 snaps, but he was targeted just once. Eric Ebron drew four looks in his return to the lineup.
Touches and Targets Week 11: Arizona Cardinals
Maybe this shouldn’t be taken as a sign of anything other than a couple of rough weeks. In fact, that’s a probably when you consider that the Cardinals have faced tough run Ds (St. Louis and Detroit) in back-to-back outings, but Andre Ellington has 37 carries and 65 yards over his last two games. A slight second year back, Ellington already sits at 227 touches for the year and you have to wonder if the volume is getting to him. His team doesn’t seem to think so, though, as they gave him 23 touches this week while allowing Stepfan Taylor three and fullback Robert Hughes (or Fat-Ellington as his dreadlocks out of the backfield look earned nickname has developed) three.
I know Michael Floyd investors want to use this week’s two TD performance as justification that all will go well for their WR with Drew Stanton under center, and indeed it is good news with scores of both the long and short variety, but he made only two catches and was targeted just twice. Rookie John Brown led the way, but I suspect over time we’ll see a lot of what we saw in Stanton’s earlier starts… occasional and tough to predict usefulness from one receiver but generally an even distribution of the ball and underwhelming individual numbers as a result. Larry Fitzgerald checked out briefly, but missed only six snaps on the day and finished with four targets.
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